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The Feeble Link between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Can We Blame the Discount Factor?




Recent research demonstrates that the well-documented feeble link between exchange rates and economic fundamentals can be reconciled with conventional exchange rate theories under the assumption that the discount factor is near unity (Engel and West 2005). We provide empirical evidence that this assumption is valid, lending further support to the above explanation of the empirical disconnect between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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  • Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2009. "The Feeble Link between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Can We Blame the Discount Factor?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 437-442, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:2-3:p:437-442

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    2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    3. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Dimitris Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "On causal Relationships Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Better Than You Think," Studies in Economics 0909, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    5. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
    7. Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling, 2014. "Which Fundamentals Drive Exchange Rates? A Cross‐Sectional Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 267-292, March.
    8. Takashi Kano, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-country Model," CAMA Working Papers 2013-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Jacob Gyntelberg & Subhanij Tientip & Mico Loretan, 2012. "Private Information, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 12/213, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
    12. Hsing, Yu, 2016. "Comparison of the Fundamental and Monetary Models of the Determinants of the Argentine Peso/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 379-388.
    13. Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.
    14. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    15. repec:eee:empfin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:199-211 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2017. "Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Staff Working Papers 17-22, Bank of Canada.
    17. KANO, Takashi, 2016. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-19, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long-Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.

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