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The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy under Abenomics

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  • Kazuo Ueda

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

   In this paper I investigate the causes of the recent sharp response of the yen and Japanese stock prices to the discussion of, and the subsequent implementation of bold monetary easing by the Bank of Japan as demanded by Prime Minister Abe. I present statistical evidence that the response of the two asset prices have indeed been unusually large relative to the past experience with NCM even after allowance is given for the rise in global economic activity and asset prices. I also point out that the rally has been led by speculative trade by foreign investors while domestic investors have largely stayed on the sidelines. I discuss possible backgrounds for such foreign investor behavior. Simply put, the unprecedented political pressure raised hopes of the adoption of bold measures by the Bank. I discuss, however, the possibility that the room for further action by the Bank is quite limited apart from what might be called a targeted helicopter drop of money. I also point out the possibility that investor behavior has not been based on economic fundamentals. The asset price volatility since April 2013 is interpreted in the light of such discussions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuo Ueda, 2013. "The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy under Abenomics," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-894, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2013cf894
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2013/2013cf894.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    2. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 177-202, Summer.
    3. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
    5. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Japan's Deflation and the Bank of Japan's Experience with Nontraditional Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 175-190, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2015. "Abenomics: Why was it so successful in changing market expectations?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Kazuo Ueda, 2014. "Comment on “Chronic Deflation in Japan”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 40-41, January.
    3. Kenji Nishizaki & Toshitaka Sekine & Yoichi Ueno, 2014. "Chronic Deflation in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 20-39, January.
      • Kenji Nishizaki & Toshitaka Sekine & Yuichi Ueno & Yuko Kawai, 2013. "Chronic deflation in Japan," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 9-19 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2011-2043, July.
    5. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:337-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2013. "Japan at the Crosswords: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 169-192, December.
    7. Sohei Kaihatsu & Koichiro Kamada & Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Theoretical Foundations for Quantitative Easing," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Kaoru Hosono & Shogo Isobe, "undated". "The Financial Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies in the U.S., the U.K., the Eurozone, and Japan," Discussion papers ron259, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    9. Bala Dahiru Abdullahi, 2016. "Time-Varying VAR with Stochastic Volatility and Monetary Policy Dynamics in Nigeria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2237-2249.
    10. Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
    11. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 060, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    12. Kosuke Aoki, 2013. "Comment on “Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy under Abenomics”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 272-273, December.
    13. KIMURA Yosuke, 2017. "Heterogeneous Investor Behaviors and Market Volatility in the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Discussion papers 17003, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. repec:eee:jjieco:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:13-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Etsuro Shioji, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation," Working Papers e92, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    16. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," Working Papers e102, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    17. MIYAO Ryuzo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Discussion papers 17065, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Kano, Takashi & Wada, Kenji, 2017. "The first arrow hitting the currency target: A long-run risk perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 337-352.

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