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Forward Guidance And The State Of The Economy

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  • Benjamin D. Keen
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

Abstract

This paper examines the economic effects of forward guidance using a New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the short-term nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with anticipated news shocks to the monetary policy rule. There are five key findings: (1) the stimulative effect of forward guidance falls as the economy deteriorates or as households expect a slower recovery because there is a smaller margin to lower expected policy rates; (2) longer forward guidance horizons do not generate increasingly larger impact effects on output when the total amount of news is fixed, unlike with an exogenous interest rate peg; (3) in steady state, an unanticipated shock has a larger impact effect on output than a news shock, but a news shock has a larger cumulative effect in every state of the economy; (4) at the ZLB, the cumulative effect on output from lengthening the forward guidance horizon increases over short horizons but decreases thereafter, which indicates the central bank faces limits on how far forward guidance can extend into the future and continue to add stimulus; and (5) forward guidance is stimulative in the absence of other shocks, but the observed effect on output is smaller or even negative if another shock simultaneously reduces demand.
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  • Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "Forward Guidance And The State Of The Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1593-1624, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:4:p:1593-1624
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmidt, Sebastian & Nakata, Taisuke & Hills, Timothy, 2016. "The risky steady state and the interest rate lower bound," Working Paper Series 1913, European Central Bank.
    2. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Maliar, Lilia & Taylor, John B., 2018. "Forward Guidance: Is It Useful After the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    5. Xu Zhang, 2018. "Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases," 2018 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Lilia Maliar & John B. Taylor, 2019. "Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 26053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 65/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Atkinson, Tyler & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2020. "The zero lower bound and estimation accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 249-264.
    10. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Nicola Acocella, "undated". "Stabilization and expanded commitment: a theory of forward guidance for economies with rational expectations," Working Papers 132/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e Modelli per l'Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza MEMOTEF.
    11. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 143, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    12. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gregor Boehl & Felix Strobel, 2020. "US Business Cycle Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_192, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    14. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2016. "Zero interest rate policy and asymmetric price adjustment in Japan: an empirical analysis of a nonlinear DSGE model," MPRA Paper 93868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ngotran, Duong, 2017. "Interest on reserves and monetary policy of targeting both interest rate and money supply," MPRA Paper 81579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    17. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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