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How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?

  • C.J.M. Kool
  • D.L. Thornton
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    In this paper, we use survey forecasts to investigate the impact of forward guidance on the predictability of future short- and long-term interest rates in four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. New Zealand began providing forward guidance in 1997, Norway in 2005, and Sweden in 2007. The United States had two periods of implicit forward guidance: 2003-2005 and 2008-2011. Overall, we find little or no convincing evidence that forward guidance actually improves markets’ ability to forecast future rates or that any improvement in forecasting short-term rates is reflected in longer-term yields. The weak support we do find is at the short end of the yield curve and at relatively short forecast horizons and only for Norway and Sweden. There is no evidence that forward guidance has increased the efficacy of monetary for New Zealand, the country with the longest—15-year—forward guidance history.

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    File URL: http://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/273400/12-05.pdf
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    Paper provided by Utrecht School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 12-05.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:1205
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    1. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3055-3068, December.
    2. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 0977, European Central Bank.
    4. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2009. "Interest Rate Signals and Central Bank Transparency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 9-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2008. "Forward Guidance for Monetary Policy: Is It Desirable?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/84, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Clemens Kool & Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency and the Crowding Out of Private Information in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 765-774, 06.
    8. Gosselin, Pierre & Gosselin-Lotz, Aileen & Wyplosz, Charles, 2006. "How Much Information Should Interest Rate-Setting Central Banks Reveal?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2008. "Monetary Policy Inclinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    11. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2009-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    13. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Aaron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2008. "Some benefits of monetary policy transparency in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Working Papers 2002-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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