Announcements of interest rate forecasts: Do policymakers stick to them?
If central banks value the ex-post accuracy of their forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might affect the current policy rate. We explore whether this "forecast adherence" has influenced the monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norges Bank, the two central banks with the longest history of publishing interest rate paths. We derive and estimate a policy rule for a central bank that is reluctant to deviate from its forecasts. The rule can nest a variety of interest rate rules. We find that policymakers appear to be constrained by their most recently announced forecasts.
|Date of creation:||11 Apr 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo|
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002.
"Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Amund Holmsen & Jan F. Qvigstad & Øistein Røisland & Kristin Solberg-Johansen, 2008. "Communicating monetary policy intentions: The case of Norges Bank," Working Paper 2008/20, Norges Bank.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003.
"What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aaron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2008.
"Some benefits of monetary policy transparency in New Zealand,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2008/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Aron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2007. "Some Benefits of Monetary-Policy Transparency in New Zealand," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 521-539, December.
- Walsh, Carl E., 2013.
"Announcements and the Role of Policy Guidance,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 575-600.
- Soderlind, Paul, 1999.
"Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
- Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2008.
"Monetary Policy Inclinations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Policy Options in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 76-79, May.
- Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
- Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2006.
"Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution,"
Working Paper Series
0643, European Central Bank.
- Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 77-110, December.
- Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2013_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.