IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v82y2020i2p285-310.html

Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Hilde C. Bj⊘rnland
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud
  • Sepideh Khayati Zahiri

Abstract

Our analysis suggests; they do not! We arrive at this conclusion by showing that revisions to the published interest rate path projections from the central banks in New Zealand, Norway and Sweden can be predicted by timely and forward‐looking international indicators. Furthermore, using individual country and Panel VARs, identified with an external instrument method, we show that the policy surprises induced by the predictable revisions likely contain information about how the central banks assess past, current and future economic conditions and thereby leads to a positive co‐movement between the interest rate and both financial markets and the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bj⊘rnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh Khayati Zahiri, 2020. "Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 285-310, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:82:y:2020:i:2:p:285-310
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12335
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/obes.12335?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    3. Saskia Ter Ellen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "Narrative Monetary Policy Surprises and the Media," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1525-1549, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:82:y:2020:i:2:p:285-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.