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Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Hilde C. Bjornland
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud
  • Sepideh Khayati Zahiri

Abstract

Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be predicted by timely information. Doing so, we find a systematic role for forward looking international indicators in predicting the revisions to the interest rate projections in all countries. In contrast, using similar indexes for the domestic economy yields largely insignificant results. Furthermore, we find that revisions to forward guidance matter. Using a VAR identified with external instruments based on forecast errors from the predictive regressions, we show that the responses to output, inflation, the exchange rate and asset returns resemble those one typically associates with a conventional monetary policy shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjornland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh Khayati Zahiri, 2017. "Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?," CAMA Working Papers 2017-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-20
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-02/20_2017_bjornland_thorsrud_zahiri.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    2. Saskia Ter Ellen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "Narrative Monetary Policy Surprises and the Media," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1525-1549, August.
    3. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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