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Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media

Author

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  • ter Ellen, Saskia
  • Larsen, Vegard H.
  • Thorsrud, Leif Anders

Abstract

We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage that can be explained by central bank communication accompanying interest rate meetings. Our proposed method is fast and simple, and relies on a Singular Value Decomposition of the different texts and articles coupled with a unit rotation identification scheme. Identifying narrative surprises in central bank communication using this type of data and identification provides surprise measures that are uncorrelated with conventional monetary policy surprises, and, in contrast to such surprises, have a significant effect on subsequent media coverage. In turn, narrative monetary policy surprises lead to macroeconomic responses similar to what recent monetary policy literature associates with the information component of monetary policy communication. Our study highlights the importance of written central bank communication and the role of the media as information intermediaries.

Suggested Citation

  • ter Ellen, Saskia & Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2019. "Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media," Working Paper 2019/19, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2019_19
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Nicolas de Roux, 2025. "Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach," Working Papers hal-05072535, HAL.
    2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
    3. Yuting Chen & Don Bredin & Valerio Potì & Roman Matkovskyy, 2022. "COVID risk narratives: a computational linguistic approach to the econometric identification of narrative risk during a pandemic," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 17-61, March.
    4. Schmidt, Torsten & Müller, Henrik & Rieger, Jonas & Schmidt, Tobias & Jentsch, Carsten, 2023. "Inflation perception and the formation of inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 1025, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    6. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    7. Sylvérie Herbert & Klodiana Istrefi & Béatrice Sagna, 2024. "Coordinating the Message: Media Coverage of Fed News and Market Reactions," Working papers 983, Banque de France.
    8. Dräger, Lena, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-713, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2025. "Credibility gains from central bank communication with the public," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & McMahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J. & Yang, Xiye, 2025. "Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    11. Leonardo Gambacorta & Salvatore Polizzi & Alessio Reghezza & Enzo Scannella, 2023. "Do banks practice what they preach? Brown lending and environmental disclosure in the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1143, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Juan Camilo Anzoategui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2024. "Efectos de las noticias digitales en el GAP de expectativas de inflación: primeras evidencias para una economía emergente," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 16(2), pages 441-467.
    14. Slonimczyk, Fabian, 2025. "This Candidate is [MASK]. Prompt-based Sentiment Extraction and Reference Letters," MPRA Paper 126675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Monticini, Andrea & Salsano, Francesco, 2024. "Media news and market expectations: Insights into the ECB's new data-dependent policy regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    16. Benchimol, Jonathan & Kazinnik, Sophia & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Text mining methodologies with R: An application to central bank texts," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 8, pages 1-19.
    17. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate risk and commodity currencies," Working Paper 2020/18, Norges Bank.
    18. El Mehdi El Herradi & Aurelien Leroy, 2022. "Navigating the well-being effects of monetary policy:Evidence from the European Central Bank," Working Papers hal-03897994, HAL.
    19. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    20. Julien Pinter & Evžen Kočenda, 2025. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(7), pages 1793-1842, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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