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Perceived monetary policy uncertainty

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  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Czudaj, Robert L.

Abstract

This paper examines whether media attention affects the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy uncertainty. We combine survey data from Consensus Economics and data on media attention from MarketPsych to distinguish between uncertainty and perceived uncertainty among the public. We assess the corresponding nonlinear effects on stock returns, the growth of industrial production, and inflation. Our results confirm that monetary policy uncertainty tends to have negative effects on production growth and stock returns. In particular for industrial production, such effects tend to be stronger in case of higher media coverage which acts as a propagation mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 114964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; media; monetary policy; survey data; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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