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Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times

Author

Listed:
  • Coenen, Günter
  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Gaballo, Gaetano
  • Hoffmann, Peter
  • Nakov, Anton
  • Nardelli, Stefano
  • Persson, Eric
  • Strasser, Georg H.

Abstract

Monetary policy communication is particularly important during unconventional times, because high uncertainty about the economy, the introduction of new policy tools and possible limits to the central bank's toolkit could hamper the predictability of policy actions. We study how monetary policy communication should and has worked under such circumstances. Our main results relate to announcements of asset purchase programmes and the use of forward guidance. We show that announcements of asset purchase programmes have lowered market uncertainty, particularly when accompanied by a contextual release of implementation details such as the envisaged size of the programme. We also show that forward guidance reduces uncertainty more effectively when it is state-contingent or when it provides guidance about a long horizon than when it is open-ended or covers only a short horizon, and that the credibility of forward guidance is strengthened if the central bank also has embarked on an asset purchase programme.

Suggested Citation

  • Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg H., 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," CFS Working Paper Series 578, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:578
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
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    4. Anton Nakov, 2008. "Optimal and Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Zero Floor on the Nominal Interest Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 73-127, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    2. Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2018. "State-dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements," Borradores de Economia 1035, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2018. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," Staff Working Papers 18-2, Bank of Canada.
    4. P. Andrade & G. Gaballo & E. Mengus & B. Mojon, 2015. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working papers 573, Banque de France.
    5. repec:ecb:ecbrbu:2017:0039:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:zbw:svrwjg:201718 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9459-7 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Communication; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Asset Purchase Programme; Forward Guidance;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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