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Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap: Evaluations for Japan’s monetary policy

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  • Hasui, Kohei
  • Teranishi, Yuki

Abstract

This paper shows (1) a positive analysis demonstrating that recent high inflation rates can be explained by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s monetary policy for the COVID-19 pandemic period, “Inflation-Overshooting Commitment,” and (2) a normative analysis showing that the BOJ’s inflation-overshooting commitment aligns with the optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap within a new Keynesian model with inflation persistence. In detail, we calibrate a hybrid new Keynesian model by Japanese parameters and show optimal monetary policy under commitment. Optimal monetary policy prolongs the zero interest rate until the second quarter of 2024 even after inflation rates overshoot 2 percent. Similarly, the BOJ continues the zero interest rate policy until the second quarter of 2024. The current average inflation rates from 2023Q4 to 2024Q3 reach 2.6 percent and 2.5 percent in the data and the model, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasui, Kohei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap: Evaluations for Japan’s monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:76:y:2025:i:c:s0889158325000103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101361
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity trap; Optimal monetary policy; Inflation persistence commitment policy; Forward guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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