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Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach

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  • Christopher S. Sutherland

Abstract

How forward guidance influences expectations is not yet fully understood. To study this issue, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I find that, in response to a change in forward guidance, forecasters revise their interest rate forecasts in the intended direction by five basis points on average. The effect is not attributable to central bank information effects. Instead, when forming rate expectations, forecasters place full weight on their own inflation and growth forecasts and zero weight on those of the central bank.

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  • Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach," Staff Working Papers 20-40, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-40
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrice Dabiré, 2022. "Forward guidance and the exchange rate: A theoretical sign restricted VAR analysis," Cahiers de recherche 22-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    2. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    4. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    5. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 179-218, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Monetary policy; Monetary policy communications; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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