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Has the information channel of monetary policy disappeared? Revisiting the empirical evidence

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Abstract

Does the Federal Reserve have an "information advantage" in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announcements via an "information channel"? This paper investigates the evolution of both the information advantage and information channel over time. Although they appear to be important historically, we find substantially weaker empirical evidence of their presence in the recent years once instabilities are accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "Has the information channel of monetary policy disappeared? Revisiting the empirical evidence," Economics Working Papers 1701, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1701
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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