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Forward guidance and heterogeneous beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Andrade
  • Gaetano Gaballo
  • Eric Mengus
  • Benoit Mojon

Abstract

Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditure, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between Q3 2011 and Q4 2012, these two interpretations co-existed despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalise these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs introduce a trade-off in forward guidance policy: leveraging on the optimism of those who believe in monetary easing comes at the cost of inducing excessive pessimism in non-believers.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Forward guidance and heterogeneous beliefs," BIS Working Papers 750, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:750
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    signaling channel; disagreement; optimal policy; zero lower bound; survey forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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