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Forward guidance and heterogenous beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Gaetano Gaballo

    (Banque de France)

  • Eric Mengus

    (HEC Paris)

  • Benoït Mojon
  • Philippe Andrade

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

We analyze the effects of forward guidance when agents have heterogeneous interpretations of whether forward guidance contains a commitment on future policy actions. Using survey expectations, we document that forward guidance lowered disagreement about future short-term interest rates to historically low levels while it did not affect much disagreement about future inflation and future consumption. We introduce heterogeneous beliefs on future policy and fundamentals in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model. We show that, because the commitment type of the central bank is unobserved, agreement on the future path of interest rates can coexist with disagreement on the length of the trap. Such heterogeneity of beliefs can strongly mitigate the effectiveness of forward guidance. It also alters the optimal policy at the zero lower bound compared to a situation where beliefs are homogenous.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoït Mojon & Philippe Andrade, 2016. "Forward guidance and heterogenous beliefs," 2016 Meeting Papers 1182, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1182
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelacci, Claudio & Paciello, Luigi, 2017. "Ambiguous Policy Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 11754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 952-964, August.
    4. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus, 2016. "The Signaling Effect of Raising Inflation," Sciences Po publications 2016-06, Sciences Po.
    5. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. repec:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/690242 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 42-97.
    8. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    9. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
    10. Philippe Andrade, 2016. "The heterogeneous interpretation of forward guidance," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 23, pages 9-14.
    11. Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg, 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," Working Paper Series 2080, European Central Bank.
    12. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2016. "Optimal Forward Guidance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-01394821, HAL.
    14. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    16. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed's Dot Projections," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-041, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    17. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    18. Brendon, Charles & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2016. "COEURE Survey: Fiscal and Monetary Policies after the Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 11088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Yves Mersch & Herbert Poenisch & David Farelius & Michael Zamorski, 2015. "SEACEN Financial Stability Journal Volume 5 2015," SEACEN Financial Stability Journal, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sfv5.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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