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Do people understand monetary policy?

Listed author(s):
  • Carvalho, Carlos
  • Nechio, Fernanda

We combine questions from the Michigan Survey about future inflation, unemployment, and interest rates to investigate whether households are aware of the basic features of U.S. monetary policy. Our findings provide evidence that some households form their expectations in a way that is consistent with a Taylor (1993)-type rule. We also document a large degree of variation in the pattern of responses over the business cycle. In particular, the negative relationship between unemployment and interest rates that is apparent in the data only shows up in households׳ answers during periods of labor market weakness.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393214000713
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 66 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 108-123

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:108-123
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.04.013
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  2. Madeira, Carlos & Zafar, Basit, 2012. "Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning," Staff Reports 536, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Jun 2014.
  3. John Taylor, 2007. "Housing and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-003, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  4. van Rooij, Maarten & Lusardi, Annamaria & Alessie, Rob J. M., 2011. "Financial literacy, retirement planning, and household wealth," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/21, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the United States," CeRP Working Papers 107, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
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  8. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning in Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(04), pages 565-584, October.
  9. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2010. "Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  10. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2011. "Unemployment in an estimated new Keynesian model," Economics Working Papers 1266, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2011.
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  12. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 505-536, 05.
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  15. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2007. "Central bank communication and expectations stabilization," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-43.
  16. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  18. Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, February.
  19. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  20. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  21. Maarten van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob Alessie, 2009. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 231, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  22. Fabia A. de Carvalho & André Minella, 2009. "Market Forecasts in Brazil: performance and determinants," Working Papers Series 185, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  23. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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