Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. We find that women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their private information, and are slower to update their expectations. During the 2000s, consumers believe inflation to be more persistent in the short term, but temporary fluctuations in inflation have less effect on expectations of personal income and long-term inflation. Finally, we find evidence that heterogeneous expectations by consumers generate higher mark-ups and inflation.
|Date of creation:||May 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robin Greenwood & Stefan Nagel, 2008.
"Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
14111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995.
"Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011.
"Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, 01.
- Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and Subjective Expectations in the United States," CSEF Working Papers 78, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 02 Jun 2009.
- Adam, Klaus & Padula, Mario, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 0222, European Central Bank.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003.
"Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Christopher Carroll, 2003. "RATS code for Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," QM&RBC Codes 36, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001.
"Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012.
"Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?,"
2012 Meeting Papers
121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011.
"Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2009.
"Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 20-39, January.
- Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2007. "Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 3239, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Primiceri, Giorgio E & van Rens, Thijs, 2006. "Heterogenous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 5881, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2006. "Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality," Economics Working Papers 945, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2008.
- Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February.
- Robert D. J. Anderson, 2008. "US Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence Regarding Learning, Accuracy and Demographics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 99, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.