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Do People Understand Monetary Policy?

  • Carlos Carvalho

    ()

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Fernanda Nechio

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

We combine questions from the Michigan Survey about the future path of prices, interest rates, and unemployment to investigate whether households are aware of the basic features of U.S. monetary policy. Our Öndings support the view that at least some groups of households form their expectations about the future path of interest rates, ináation, and unemployment in a way that is consistent with those features. However, we also document a large degree of variation in the pattern of household responses over the business cycle. In particular, the negative relationship between unemployment and interest rates that is apparent in the data only shows up unequivocally in householdsíanswers during periods of labor market weakness.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 618.

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Length: 30p
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:618
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  1. Maarten van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob J. Alessie, 2011. "Financial Literacy, Retirement Planning, and Household Wealth," NBER Working Papers 17339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 17084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  6. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 19368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Daniel Tortorice, 2010. "Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 05, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Mar 2011.
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  12. Maarten van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob Alessie, 2009. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 231, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  13. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  14. Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. John Taylor, 2007. "Housing and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-003, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  16. Schmidt, Sandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-045, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  17. Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Annamaria Lusardi, 2011. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in Germany," CeRP Working Papers 109, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  18. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
  19. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the United States," CeRP Working Papers 107, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  20. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
  21. Fabia A. de Carvalho & André Minella, 2009. "Market Forecasts in Brazil: performance and determinants," Working Papers Series 185, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  22. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2007. "Central bank communication and expectations stabilization," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-43.
  23. Charles F. Manski & Elie Tamer, 2002. "Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 519-546, March.
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