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Do People Understand Monetary Policy?

  • Carlos Carvalho

    ()

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Fernanda Nechio

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

We combine questions from the Michigan Survey about the future path of prices, interest rates, and unemployment to investigate whether households are aware of the basic features of U.S. monetary policy. Our Öndings support the view that at least some groups of households form their expectations about the future path of interest rates, ináation, and unemployment in a way that is consistent with those features. However, we also document a large degree of variation in the pattern of household responses over the business cycle. In particular, the negative relationship between unemployment and interest rates that is apparent in the data only shows up unequivocally in householdsíanswers during periods of labor market weakness.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 618.

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Length: 30p
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:618
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  2. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  13. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
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  16. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the United States," CeRP Working Papers 107, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  17. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend, Cross-Sectional Evidence," Working Papers 015, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  18. Schmidt, Sandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2010. "Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-045, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  19. Charles F. Manski & Elie Tamer, 2002. "Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 519-546, March.
  20. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
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  22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  23. Maarten van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob Alessie, 2009. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 231, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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