Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption
In this paper we argue that once one departs from the simple classroom example, or `stripped down life-cycle model,' the empirical model for consumption growth can be made flexible enough to fit the main features of the data. More specifically, we show that allowing demographics to affect household preferences and relaxing the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump-shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household-level data sources, without appealing to alternative explanations (such as liquidity constraints, myopia or mental accounting). The hump-shape is partly attributable to precautionary savings, and partly due to demographics; the tracking (whereby consumption jumps with income) is instead due to the permanent nature of the income shocks. We use US household-level data to estimate preference parameters and income profiles, and then simulate consumption profiles for different education groups. Our simulated profiles show that the key features observed in the data can be closely matched in simulation. We also show that neglecting uncertainty produces consumption profiles that are `too flat,' whereas neglecting demographics generates consumption profiles that peak `too late.'
|Date of creation:||Nov 1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 17, no. 1 (January 1999): 22-35.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John M. Abowd & David Card, 1986.
"On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes,"
NBER Working Papers
1832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March.
- Sumru Altug & Robert A. Miller, 1987.
"Household choices in equilibrium,"
341, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sumru Altug & Robert Miller, . "Household Choices in Equilibrium," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 87-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
- Joseph G. Altonji & Aloysius Siow, 1986.
"Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes with (Noisy) PanelData,"
NBER Working Papers
2012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Altonji, Joseph G & Siow, Aloysius, 1987. "Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes with (Noisy) Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 293-328, May.
- Albert Marcet & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990.
"Equilibrium asset prices and savings of heterogeneous agents in the presence of incomplete markets and portfolio constraints,"
Economics Working Papers
319, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 1998.
- Marcet, Albert & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1999. "Equilibrium Asset Prices And Savings Of Heterogeneous Agents In The Presence Of Incomplete Markets And Portfolio Constraints," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 243-277, June.
- MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.