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Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance

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  • Gaballo, G.

Abstract

This paper studies the social value of information about the future when agents are rationally inattentive. In a stylized OLG model of inflation the central bank (CB) can set money supply in response to the current price. The CB has perfect foresight about the future T shocks and releases this information to rationally inattentive agents. At the unique REE, individual and aggregate risks can increase with the release when the monetary conduct is not "tight enough" and agents are "not attentive enough" to the news. In particular, the shorter the T, the more attentive the agents must be to avoid perverse welfare effects, whereas the notion of "tight enough" remains invariant. In this sense, efficient communication requires effective monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaballo, G., 2013. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," Working papers 416, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," NBER Working Papers 22785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Lise & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2015. "Rational bubbles and macroeconomic fluctuations: The (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 07 Nov 2018.
    4. Benoît Cœuré, 2017. "Central Bank Communication in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 813-822, November.
    5. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-01394821, HAL.
    6. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuichiro Waki, 2015. "Private news and monetary policy forward guidance or (the expected virtue of ignorance)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 238, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Apr 2015.
    7. Isabella Blengini & Kenza Benhima, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Information is Market-Generated," 2016 Meeting Papers 1223, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    9. Mackowiak, Bartosz Adam & Matejka, Filip & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2018. "Survey: Rational Inattention, a Disciplined Behavioral Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 13243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Bezerra Bisneto, João Lídio, 2016. "Communication policy with public uncertainty," Textos para discussão 431, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    11. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "Central Bank Design," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 17-44, Fall.
    12. Eric Gaus, 2014. "Adaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance," Working Papers 14-03, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    13. Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg H., 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," CFS Working Paper Series 578, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Strasser, Georg, 2019. "Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 93-112.
    15. Moustapha Daouda Dala & Isabelle Distinguin & Alain Sauviat, 2020. "What is the information value of bank's stress tests? An investigation using banks' bond split ratings," Working Papers hal-02475512, HAL.
    16. Moustapha Daouda Dala & Isabelle Distinguin & Alain Sauviat, 2020. "What is the information value of bank's stress tests? An investigation using banks' bond split ratings," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 485-499.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information Acquisition; Central Bank Communication; Monetary Policy; Social Value of Information.;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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