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Cycles, Gaps, and the Social Value of Information

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  • George-Marios Angeletos
  • Luigi Iovino
  • Jennifer La'O

Abstract

What are the welfare effects of the information contained in macroeconomic statistics, central-bank communications, or news in the media? We address this question in a business-cycle framework that nests the neoclassical core of modern DSGE models. Earlier lessons that were based on "beauty contests" (Morris and Shin, 2002) are found to be inapplicable. Instead, the social value of information is shown to hinge on essentially the same conditions as the optimality of output stabilization policies. More precise information is unambiguously welfare-improving as long as the business cycle is driven primarily by technology and preference shocks--but can be detrimental when shocks to markups and wedges cause sufficient volatility in "output gaps." A numerical exploration suggests that the first scenario is more plausible.
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  • George-Marios Angeletos & Luigi Iovino & Jennifer La'O, 2011. "Cycles, Gaps, and the Social Value of Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000293, David K. Levine.
  • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000000293
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandre Kohlhas, 2015. "Learning-by-Sharing: Monetary Policy and the Information Content of Public Signals," 2015 Meeting Papers 57, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Wataru Tamura, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Transparency under Informational Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1293-1314, September.
    3. Catilina, Eliane, 2019. "Information Acquisition with Endogenously Determined Cost in Cournot Markets with Stochastic Demand," MPRA Paper 93896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Luca Colombo & Gianluca Femminis & Alessandro Pavan, 2014. "Information Acquisition and Welfare," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1438-1483.
    5. Ricardo T. Fernholz, 2015. "Exchange Rate Manipulation And Constructive Ambiguity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1323-1348, November.
    6. Myatt, David P. & Wallace, Chris, 2014. "Central bank communication design in a Lucas-Phelps economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-79.
    7. Jenny Tang, 2013. "Uncertainty and the signaling channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 15-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 42-97, January.
    9. Michael Rousakis, 2013. "Expectations and Fluctuations: The Role of Monetary Policy," 2013 Meeting Papers 681, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Bergemann, Dirk & Heumann, Tibor & Morris, Stephen, 2015. "Information and volatility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 427-465.
    11. Myatt, David P. & Wallace, Chris, 2015. "Cournot competition and the social value of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 466-506.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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