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How effective is central bank forward guidance?

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  • Kool, Clemens J. M.
  • Thornton, Daniel L.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance for the central banks of four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We test whether forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast future short-term and long-term rates. We find that forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast short-term rates over relatively short forecast horizons, but only for Norway and Sweden. Importantly, there is no evidence that forward guidance has increased the efficacy of monetary policy for New Zealand, the country with the longest history of forward guidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2012. "How effective is central bank forward guidance?," Working Papers 2012-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Quelle est l’efficacité du forward guidance à la borne inférieure zéro ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-04-03 01:28:00

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    2. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 30 Apr 2014.
    3. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "La crise sur un plateau : perspectives 2013-2014," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6mun, Sciences Po.
    4. Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Central bank communication: Managing expectations through the monetary dialogue," Ruhr Economic Papers 692, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Belke Ansgar, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(3), pages 341-368, December.
    6. Bennett, Elizabeth A., 2017. "Who Governs Socially-Oriented Voluntary Sustainability Standards? Not the Producers of Certified Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 53-69.
    7. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 42-97.
    8. Issing, Otmar, 2014. "Communication and transparency – The example of the ECB," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 70-73.
    9. Moessner, Richhild, 2015. "Reactions of US government bond yields to explicit FOMC forward guidance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 217-233.
    10. Maria Lucia Florez-Jimenez & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2016. "Forward guidance with an escape clause: when half a promise is better than a full one," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(15), pages 1372-1381, March.
    11. Renne Jean-Paul, 2017. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, pages 99-116.
    12. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0447, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Vincent Touze, 2013. "Politiques monétaires : est-ce le début de la fin ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6mun, Sciences Po.
    14. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    15. Smales, Lee A. & Apergis, Nick, 2016. "The influence of FOMC member characteristics on the monetary policy decision-making process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 216-231.
    16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9ob627a1r2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:4:p:1593-1624 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Franz R. Hahn, 2013. "Guidelines for Monetary Policy Before, During and After the Financial Market Crisis," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 86(12), pages 961-975, December.
    19. Moessner, Richhild, 2013. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance on interest rate expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 170-173.
    20. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9oasij6sc6 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Banks and banking; Central;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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