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How effective is central bank forward guidance?

Listed author(s):
  • Kool, Clemens J. M.
  • Thornton, Daniel L.

This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance for the central banks of four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We test whether forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast future short-term and long-term rates. We find that forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast short-term rates over relatively short forecast horizons, but only for Norway and Sweden. Importantly, there is no evidence that forward guidance has increased the efficacy of monetary policy for New Zealand, the country with the longest history of forward guidance.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-063.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2012-063.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-063
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  13. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2009. "Interest Rate Signals and Central Bank Transparency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 9-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance on market interest rates," DNB Working Papers 384, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  23. Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2011. "Central bank transparency and the crowding out of private information in an experimental asset market," Staff Reports 487, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  25. Aron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2007. "Some Benefits of Monetary-Policy Transparency in New Zealand," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 521-539, December.
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  33. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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