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An assessment of recent Reserve Bank forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Jane Turner

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

The Reserve Bank's ability to produce good quality forecasts is critical for it to operate monetary policy in a forward-looking environment. As part of the Bank's regular review of its own forecasting performance, we compare the Reserve Bank's forecasts of key variables from the past three years against a benchmark of forecasts prepared by other forecasters. The results from this review suggest that the Bank's forecast performance over recent years has been at least comparable to the average of other forecasters. In the case of CPI inflation and 90-day interest rates, the Bank's forecasts performed slightly better than the average of other forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Jane Turner, 2006. "An assessment of recent Reserve Bank forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-6, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:september2006:4
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2006/2006sep69-3turner.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. McDonald, Christopher & Thamotheram, Craig & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2015. "Assessing the Economic Value of Probabilistic Forecasts in the Presence of an Inflation Target," EMF Research Papers 09, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    2. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.

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