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A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies

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  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew
  • Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni
  • Acocella, Nicola

Abstract

Rational expectations are often used as an argument against policy activism, as they may undermine or neutralize the policymaker’s actions. Although this sometimes happens, rational expectations do not always imply policy invariance or ineffectiveness. In fact, in certain circumstances rational expectations can enhance our power to control an economy over time. In those cases, policy announcements can be used to extend the impact of conventional policy instruments. We present a general forward-looking policy framework and use it to provide a formal rationale for testing when policymakers can and cannot expect to be able to manage expectations. To describe the relevance of our results applications are shown for policy design in small-open economies. Those are the cases where domestic policies are at their weakest and our ability to influence expectations most constrained.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:2:p:397-411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.12.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Nicola Acocella, "undated". "Stabilization and expanded commitment: a theory of forward guidance for economies with rational expectations," Working Papers 132/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e modelli per l'economia, il territorio e la finanza MEMOTEF.
    2. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Martinez Oliva, Juan Carlos, 2015. "The importance of trade and capital imbalances in the European debt crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 229-252.
    3. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 358-361.
    4. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2015. "Three different approaches to transparency in monetary policy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 277-300, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational expectations; Controllability; Policy neutrality; Monetary policy; Trade policy; Imperfect pass-through;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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