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A Note on the Anchoring Effect of Explicit Inflation Targets

  • Jan Libich

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Empirical literature provided convincing evidence that explicit (ie legislated) inflation targets anchor expectations. We propose a novel game theoretic framework with generalized timing that allows us to formally capture this beneficial anchoring effect. Using the framework we identify several factors that influence whether and how strongly expectations are anchored, namely: (i) the public’s cost of decision-making, (ii) the public’s inflation aversion, (iii) the slope of the Phillips curve, (iv) the magnitude of supply shocks, (v) the degree of central bank conservatism, and under many (but not all) circumstances, (vi) the explicitness of the inflation target.

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File URL: http://cbe.anu.edu.au/research/papers/camawpapers/Papers/2009/Libich_212009.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2009-21.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2009-21
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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  2. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Inattentive Consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Takahashi, Satoru & Wen, Quan, 2003. "On asynchronously repeated games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 239-245, May.
  5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," CEPR Discussion Papers 1852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jan Libich, 2006. "An Explicit Inflation Target As A Commitment Device," CAMA Working Papers 2006-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Beechey, Meredith J & Johannsen, Benjamin K & Levin, Andrew, 2007. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  11. Tobin, James, 1981. "Money and Finance in the Macro-Economic Process," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1981-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  12. In-Koo Cho & Akihiko Matsui, 2005. "Time Consistency In Alternating-Move Policy Games," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 273-294.
  13. Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2012. "Monetary Policy Facing Fiscal Indiscipline under Generalized Timing of Actions," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 168(3), pages 393-431, September.
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