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Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox

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  • Thornton, Daniel L.

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One of the more puzzling results in the expectations hypothesis (EH) testing literature is the Campbell-Shiller paradox (CSP). In an influential paper, Campbell and Shiller (1991) found that "the slope of the term structure almost always gives a forecast in the wrong direction for the short-term change in the yield on the longer bond, but gives a forecast in the right direction for long-term changes in short rates." This paper provides an econometric resolution to the CSP. Specifically, it shows that, by their construction, these tests can generate results consistent with the CSP if the EH does not hold-whatever the reason. Monte Carlo experiments confirm that this explanation can account for Campbell and Shiller's paradoxical results for most pairings of short-term and long-term rates considered.

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  • Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:511-542
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 21-40.
    2. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:21:p:2041-2059 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    4. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    5. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
    6. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0611, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
    8. Bernaschi, M. & Torosantucci, L. & Uboldi, A., 2007. "Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 543-554.
    9. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 6310, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2007.
    10. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Azar, Samih Antoine, 2010. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on Corporate Bond Yields," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 6(1-2).
    12. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    13. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.
    14. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
    17. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
    18. M. Hadzi-Vaskov & C.J.M. Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics.

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