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Monetary Policy Inclinations

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  • HANS GERSBACH
  • VOLKER HAHN

Abstract

We examine whether the publication of forecasts concerning the likely future conduct of monetary policy is socially desirable. Introducing a new central bank loss function that accounts for the deviations from announcements, we incorporate forecasts about future inflation and interest rates into a dynamic monetary model. We show that the announcement of future interest rates is always socially detrimental. However, medium-term inflation projections tend to increase welfare.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2011. "Monetary Policy Inclinations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1707-1717, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:8:p:1707-1717 DOI: j.1538-4616.2011.00464.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. William Poole, 2005. "How should the Fed communicate?," Speech 6, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. William Poole, 2003. "Fed transparency: how, not whether," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 1-8.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    7. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2006. "Signaling And Commitment: Monetary Versus Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 595-624, November.
    8. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    9. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2005. "Persuasion in Finance," NBER Working Papers 11838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 165-186.
    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2014. "Inflation forecast contracts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 26-40.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Liu, Yulin & Tischhauser, Martin, 2018. "Versatile Forward Guidance: Escaping or Switching?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2008. "Forward Guidance for Monetary Policy: Is It Desirable?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/84, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    4. Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Central bank communication: Managing expectations through the monetary dialogue," Ruhr Economic Papers 692, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. repec:bla:jecsur:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:678-711 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Svensson, Lars E O, 2009. "Transparency under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Experiences and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 7213, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Nikola Mirkov & Gisle James Natvik, 2016. "Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 901-920, August.
    8. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.
    9. Volker Hahn, 2009. "Why the Publication of Socially Harmful Information May Be Socially Desirable," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 09/122, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn & Yulin Liu, 2015. "Forward Guidance Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5375, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Wataru Tamura, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Transparency under Informational Friction," CARF F-Series CARF-F-329, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:189-209 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    15. Thomas J. Jordan & Michel Peytrignet & Enzo Rossi, 2010. "Ten Years' Experience with the Swiss National Bank's Monetary Policy Strategy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 9-90, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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