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Inflation Forecast Contracts

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Abstract

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balance, paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2011. "Inflation Forecast Contracts," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 11/149, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:11-149
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    Cited by:

    1. Gersbach, Hans & Liu, Yulin & Tischhauser, Martin, 2021. "Versatile forward guidance: escaping or switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2019. "Forward-looking component in consumers’ expectations and inflation forecast targeting: the case of six European economies," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 77-112.
    3. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker & Liu, Yulin, 2019. "Forward Guidance Contracts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3386-3423, December.
    4. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central banks; incentive contracts; transparency; inflation targeting; inflation forecast targeting; intermediate targets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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