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State-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Unemployment Persistence

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  • Lockwood, Ben

Abstract

This paper shows that, if unemployment (or some other real variable) follows a dynamic autoregressive process, the government can still achieve its precommitment outcome in monetary policy by offering the central banker a linear inflation contract, where the penalty for incremental inflation depends positively on lagged unemployment. This note, therefore, offers an extension of recent results of C. Walsh (1995) to the case of persistence in real economic variables such as output or unemployment. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lockwood, Ben, 1997. "State-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Unemployment Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 286-299, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:29:y:1997:i:3:p:286-99
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    Cited by:

    1. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2014. "Inflation forecast contracts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 26-40.
    2. Takalo, Tuomas & Castrén, Olli & Wood, Geoffrey, 2004. "Labour market reform and the sustainability of exchange rate pegs," Working Paper Series 406, European Central Bank.
    3. Hans Gersbach & Verena Liessem, 2008. "Reelection threshold contracts in politics," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 31(2), pages 233-255, August.
    4. Caleiro, António, 2009. "How upside down are political business cycles when there is output persistence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 22-26, March.
    5. Gersbach, Hans & Liessem, Verena, 2008. "Incentive contracts and elections for politicians with multi-task problems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 401-411, November.
    6. Lu, Yang K. & King, Robert G. & Pasten, Ernesto, 2016. "Optimal reputation building in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 233-249.
    7. Kutsoati, Edward, 2002. "Debt-contingent inflation contracts and targets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 399-421, March.
    8. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2009. "Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal," MPRA Paper 15116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2010. "Cross Country Evidence on Consumption Persistence," MPRA Paper 22008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mash, Richard, 2002. "Monetary Policy with an Endogenous Capital Stock When Inflation Is Persistent," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(0), pages 55-86, Supplemen.
    11. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2014. "Delegating optimal monetary policy inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 63-78.
    12. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn & Yulin Liu, 2015. "Forward Guidance Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5375, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Anssi Rantala, 2004. "Adaptive learning and multiple equilibria in a natural rate monetary model with unemployment persistence," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404005, EconWPA.
    15. Henrik Jensen & Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, 1999. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 342-347, March.
    16. Richard Mash, 2000. "The Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy with Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Eric Le Borgne, 2010. "A Political Agency Theory of Central Bank Independence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 647-677, June.
    18. Edward Kutsoati, 2000. "Debt-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Targeting," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0009, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    19. Hans Gersbach, 2004. "Competition of Politicians for Incentive Contracts and Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 157-177, October.
    20. Olli Castrén & Tuomas Takalo & Geoffrey Wood, 2010. "Unemployment Persistence And The Sustainability Of Exchange Rate Pegs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 85-102, February.
    21. António Caleiro, 2006. "Output Persistence and Upside Down Electoral Business Cycles, What Does Really Matter?," Economics Working Papers 04_2006, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    22. Florin Bilbiie, 2005. "Deus ex machina wanted: time inconsistency of time consistency solutions in monetary policy," Economics Papers 2005-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    23. repec:spr:joptap:v:150:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1007_s10957-011-9847-x is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Weymark, Diana N., 2007. "Inflation, government transfers, and optimal central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 297-315, February.
    25. Jos� BELBUTE & Ant�nio CALEIRO, 2009. "Measuring Persistence On Consumption In Portugal," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).

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