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Forward Guidance Contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Gersbach
  • Volker Hahn
  • Yulin Liu

Abstract

We examine “Forward Guidance Contracts”, which make central bankers’ utility contingent on the precision of interest-rate forecasts for some time. Such Forward Guidance Contracts are a flexible commitment device and can improve economic performance when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap. Utilizing the New Keynesian Framework, we establish the properties of simple renewable Forward Guidance Contracts and characterize the contracts that the government wants to offer repeatedly. These contracts create favorable tradeoffs between the efficacy of forward guidance at the zero bound and the reduced flexibility in reacting to future events, when the zero bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central banks’ choice. We discuss how Forward Guidance Contracts can be used when there is uncertainty about natural real interest-rate shocks, a situation which typically calls for moderate incentive intensity. Finally we explore alternative contractual environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn & Yulin Liu, 2015. "Forward Guidance Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5375, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5375
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    Cited by:

    1. Salomon Faure & Hans Gersbach, 2021. "On the money creation approach to banking," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 265-318, September.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Liu, Yulin & Tischhauser, Martin, 2021. "Versatile forward guidance: escaping or switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Faure, Salomon & Gersbach, Hans, 2016. "Money creation and destruction," CFS Working Paper Series 555, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; zero lower bound; central banks; incentive contracts; transparency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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