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Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention and the Volatility Trade-off

Author Info

  • WilliamA. Branch
  • John Carlson
  • GeorgeW. Evans
  • Bruce McGough

Abstract

This article considers the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimising a loss function that depends on expected forecast errors and information costs. "Endogenous inattention" is a Nash equilibrium in the information processing rate. Although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility, it indirectly anchors expectations, which decreases output volatility. If the indirect effect dominates then the usual trade-off between output and price volatility breaks down. Copyright � The Author(s). Journal compilation � Royal Economic Society 2009.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02222.x
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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 119 (2009)
Issue (Month): 534 (01)
Pages: 123-157

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:119:y:2009:i:534:p:123-157
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
  • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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Cited by:

  1. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Pfajfar, D., 2012. "Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations," Discussion Paper 2012-083, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  4. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  5. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 1-28, July.
  6. William A. Branch & John B. Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Adaptive learning, endogenous inattention, and changes in monetary policy," Working Paper 0610, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Alberto Locarno, 2006. "Imperfect knowledge, adaptive learning and the bias against activist monetary policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 590, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Lena Dräger, 2011. "Endogenous Persistence with Recursive Inattentiveness," KOF Working papers 11-285, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.

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