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Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations

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  • Pfajfar, D.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents may produce heterogeneous expectations because of informational frictions and differing levels of a capacity to process information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this framework: those where strictly dominated forecasting rules vanish, and those heterogeneous states where a positive proportion of agents uses a more costly perfect foresight. We demonstrate that intrinsic heterogeneity can also arise in a model where the forecasting rules are not equally costly and do not exhibit identical performance in the long run.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pfajfar, D., 2012. "Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations," Discussion Paper 2012-083, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:f256da5c-c711-49c8-bd12-9c3d8d64c676
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Gomez & Giulia Piccillo, 2019. "Diverse Risk Preferences and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8003, CESifo.
    2. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2020. "Monetary policy shocks from the consumer perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 159-173.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
    5. Acedański, Jan, 2017. "Heterogeneous expectations and the distribution of wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 162-175.
    6. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2011. "Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    8. Volha Audzei, 2022. "Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 281-320, September.
    9. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    10. Ng, Desmond & Chen, Liming, 2016. "Learning to Learn: A Case for the Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis in Industrialized Markets," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Tura-Gawron, Karolina, 2019. "Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Guo Feng & Liu Chong & Shi Qingling, 2019. "Smart or stupid depends on who is your counterpart: a cobweb model with heterogeneous expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(5), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    15. repec:gdk:wpaper:50 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous expectations; cobweb model; adaptive learning; rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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