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Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes

Author

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  • Anufriev, M.

    () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    () (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

In recent 'learning to forecast' experiments with human subjects (Hommes, et al. 2005), three different patterns in aggregate asset price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent oscillations and dampened fluctuations. We construct a simple model of individual learning, based on performance based evolutionary selectionor reinforcement learning among heterogeneous expectations rules, explaining these different aggregate outcomes. Out-of-sample predictive power of our switching model is higher compared to the rational or other homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Our results show that heterogeneity in expectations is crucial to describe individual forecasting behavior as well as aggregate price behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2009. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:09-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Hüsler, A. & Sornette, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: Evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 304-316.
    3. Anufriev, Mikhail & Tuinstra, Jan, 2013. "The impact of short-selling constraints on financial market stability in a heterogeneous agents model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1523-1543.
    4. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
    5. repec:eee:gamebe:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:188-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Damien Challet, 2016. "Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years," Papers 1605.00634, arXiv.org.
    7. Bao, Te & Duffy, John & Hommes, Cars, 2013. "Learning, forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-204.
    8. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания
      [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]
      ," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    10. Gao, Yan & Li, Honggang, 2011. "A consolidated model of self-fulfilling expectations and self-destroying expectations in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 368-381, March.
    11. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013. "Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
    12. Kimbrough, Erik O., 2011. "Heuristic learning and the discovery of specialization and exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 491-511, April.
    13. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.

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