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Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets

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Listed author(s):
  • Mikhail Anufriev
  • Cars Hommes

    ()

  • Raoul Philipse

Abstract

An economic environment is a feedback system, where the dynamics of aggregate variables depend on individual expectations and vice versa. The type of feedback mechanism is crucial for the aggregate outcome. Experiments with human subjects (Heemeijer et al., J Econ Dyn Control 33:1052–1072, 2009 ) have shown that price converges to the fundamental level in a negative feedback environment but fails to do so under positive feedback. We present an explanation of these experimental results by means of a model of evolutionary switching between heuristics. Active heuristics are chosen endogenously, on the basis of their past performance. Under negative feedback an adaptive heuristic dominates explaining fast price convergence, whereas under positive feedback a trend-following heuristic dominates resulting in persistent price deviations and oscillations. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00191-011-0242-4
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 663-688

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:23:y:2013:i:3:p:663-688
DOI: 10.1007/s00191-011-0242-4
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/191/PS2

Keywords: Evolutionary learning; Expectations feedback; Experiments; D03; G12; D84; C91; C92;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
  • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
  • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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  1. George J. Mailath, 1998. "Corrigenda [Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons from Evolutionary Game Theory]," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1941-1941, December.
  2. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, 04.
  3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  4. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  5. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  6. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2005. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: a comparison," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2005-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  7. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
  8. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
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  10. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  11. Sutan, Angela & Willinger, Marc, 2009. "Guessing with negative feedback: An experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1123-1133, May.
  12. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2009. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Arifovic, Jasmina & Ledyard, John, 2007. "Call market book information and efficiency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1971-2000, June.
  14. Hey, John D., 1994. "Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-349, December.
  15. John Haltiwanger & Michael Waldman, 1989. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 463-483.
  16. Mikhail Anufriev & Jasmina Arifovic & John Ledyard & Valentyn Panchenko, 2013. "Efficiency of continuous double auctions under individual evolutionary learning with full or limited information," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 539-573, July.
  17. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
  18. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
  19. Conlisk, John, 1996. "Bounded rationality and market fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-250, March.
  20. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
  21. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
  22. George J. Mailath, 1998. "Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons from Evolutionary Game Theory," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1347-1374, September.
  23. Duffy, John, 2006. "Agent-Based Models and Human Subject Experiments," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 949-1011 Elsevier.
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Cited by:

  1. Agnès Festré & Pierre Garrouste, 2016. "Hayek on Expectations: The Interplay between two Complex Systems," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-13, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
  2. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
  3. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2017. "Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment: A Simulation Approach," Working Papers 2017/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  4. repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Assenza, T. & Bao, T. & Massaro, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Grazzini, J., 2011. "Experimental Based, Agent Based Stock Market," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  7. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo, 2013. "Evolution and market behavior in economics and finance: introduction to the special issue," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 507-512, July.
  8. Katarina Juselius & Katrin Assenmacher, 2014. "Real exchange rate persistence: the case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate," Discussion Papers 14-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  9. Matteo G. Richiardi, 2017. "The Future of Agent-Based Modeling," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 271-287, March.
  10. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
  11. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.

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