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Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments

Listed author(s):
  • Hommes, Cars
  • Lux, Thomas

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2013)
Issue (Month): 02 (March)
Pages: 373-401

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:17:y:2013:i:02:p:373-401_00
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  4. Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2002. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Arifovic, Jasmina & Gencay, Ramazan, 2000. "Statistical properties of genetic learning in a model of exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 981-1005, June.
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  8. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
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  18. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
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  29. Jan Tuinstra & Joep Sonnemans & Cars Hommes & Peter Heemeijer, 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," Working Papers wp06-18, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  30. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
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  35. Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  36. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Evolution of Market Heuristics," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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