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Monetary Policy Rules under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations

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  • Sophocles N. Brissimis

    () (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and University of Piraeus)

  • Nicholas S. Magginas

    (National Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived by the minimization under discretion of a standard central bank loss function subject to a Phillips curve, modified to include the forecast deviation, and a forward-looking aggregate demand equation. This rule, which itself includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument, is estimated for the period 1974-1998, covering the Chairmanships of Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by using real-time forecasts of inflation and the output gap obtained from the FOMC’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The estimated rule remains remarkably stable over the whole sample period, challenging the conventional view of a structural break following Volcker’s appointment as Chairman of the Fed. Finally, the substantial decline in the significance of the interest-rate smoothing term in the rule indicates that monetary policy inertia may, to a large extent, be an artifact of serially correlated inflation-forecast errors that feed into policy decisions in real time.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 35, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Williamson, 2006. "A worldwide system of reference rates," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 341-352, December.
    2. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe's Hard Fix: The Euro Area," Working Papers 39, Bank of Greece.
    3. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 359-377, December.
    4. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2006. "An Alternative Definition of Market Efficiency and some Comments on its Empirical Testing," Working Papers 50, Bank of Greece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward-looking model; Monetary policy reaction function; Expectations formation; Inflation expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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