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Information Variables for Monetary Policy in a Small Structural Model of the Euro Area

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  • Lippi, Francesco
  • Neri, Stefano

Abstract

This Paper estimates a small New-Keynesian model with imperfect information and optimal discretionary policy using data for the euro area. The model is used to assess the usefulness of monetary aggregates and unit labour costs as information variables for monetary policy. The estimates reveal that the information content of the M3 monetary aggregate is limited. A more useful role emerges for the unit labour costs indicator, which contains information that helps to reduce the volatility of the output gap. Finally, the estimated weights for the objectives of monetary policy indicate that considerable importance is attributed to interest-rate smoothing, greater than the importance attributed to the output gap stabilization. This finding indicates that the welfare gains of commitment may be smaller than is suggested by typical parameterizations of New-Keynesian models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2003. "Information Variables for Monetary Policy in a Small Structural Model of the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    2. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    3. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2006. "Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 457-477, April.
    4. Pablo García & Rodrigo Valdés, 2003. "Dinero y Conducción de la Política Monetaria con Metas de Inflación," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 698-706.
    5. Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    6. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kristoffer Nimark, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Real-time Signal Extraction from the Bond Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:3:p:1400-1415 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nimark, Kristoffer P., 2003. "Indicator Accuracy and Monetary Policy: Is Ignorance Bliss?," Working Paper Series 157, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
    11. Sauro Mocetti, 2012. "Educational choices and the selection process: before and after compulsory schooling," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, February.
    12. Helge Berger & Henning Weber, 2012. "Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest," IMF Working Papers 12/6, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "Information variables for monetary policy in an estimated structural model of the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1256-1270, May.
    14. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Monetary Policy and Cautious Prediction of the Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/40, European University Institute.
    15. Pablo García, & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2004. "Monetarism Beyond M1A," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 262, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2017. "Monetary Policy Rules Under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1400-1415, July.
    17. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; kalman filter; monetary policy; output gap;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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