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National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty

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  • Lavan Mahadeva
  • Alex Muscatelli

Abstract

This paper looks at some implications of data uncertainty for monetary policy. We combine national accounts data revisions with optimal control and filtering experiments on a calibrated model to discuss policy implications of price-versus-volume data uncertainty in GDP data for the United Kingdom. We find some degree of negative correlation between revisions to real GDP and GDP deflator data. We develop a methodology for estimating the output gap which takes account of the benefit of hindsight and decreasing measurement errors through time. Our optimal control experiments reveal that monetary policy makers would be led to place greater weight on nominal GDP data and correspondingly less weight on separate, uncertain estimates of prices and volume growth. However, estimates of real growth and also the output gap matter even when there is much uncertainty of this type. Our results also suggest that estimates of the level of inflationary pressure and nominal GDP data become more important when the economy is prone to inflationary overreactions to shifts in technological progress

Suggested Citation

  • Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:14
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/extmpcpaper0014.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
    2. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast," CREATES Research Papers 2008-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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