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Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World

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  • Charles Bean

Abstract

In this article, Charles Bean, Bank of England Chief Economist and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, reviews and assesses the three types of uncertainty which affect monetary policymakers: uncertainty about the data; uncertainty about the nature and persistence of shocks; and uncertainty about the structure of the economy. Focusing on uncertainty about the structure of the economy, he notes the unusual stability of inflation and output growth in the past decade or so. There are a number of possible explanations, including plain good luck, structural changes in the economy and improved policymaking. The author goes on to note that the short-run trade-off between inflation and activity seems to have flattened as inflation has stabilised at low levels and he attributes this in part to improved monetary policymaking. He goes on to consider some of the policy implications of this change.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Bean, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(1), pages 31-53, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. repec:cup:apsrev:v:87:y:1993:i:03:p:567-576_10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wintrobe,Ronald, 1998. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521583299, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucas Papademos, 2007. "The Effects of Globalization on Inflation, Liquidity and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 593-608 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    3. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2009. "Interest Rate Signals and Central Bank Transparency," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 9-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alex Cukierman, 2009. "The Limits of Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, pages 1-37.
    5. Edward Nelson, 2009. "An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 333-368, June.
    6. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 856-871.
    8. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the UK: The Impact of Independence and Inflation Targeting," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 603-617.
    9. Kenjiro Suzuki & Yasunori Okabe & Takaaki Fujii, 2006. "On a Non-linear Risk Analysis for Stock Market Indexes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, pages 235-258.
    10. Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Changes in the inflation process in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-30., March.
    11. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2009. "Using Real-Time Output Gaps To Examine Past And Future Policy Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 98-110, October.
    12. Lee, Jiho, 2012. "Are structural parameters of DSGE models stable in Korea?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 50-59.

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