IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/wpaper/16-2008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary policy and commodity price shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Silke Tober

    () (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Tobias Zimmermann

    () (Rhine-Westphalia Insitut for Economic Research (RWI))

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of commodity price shocks in a new Keynesian model. The focus is on the central bank's choice of inflation target and the degree of real wage rigidity. It turns out that using core inflation rather than headline inflation is the superior strategy. Targeting expected headline inflation, as practiced by most central banks, is a viable practical alternative to the core inflation target. Simulations illustrate these points. The introduction of real wage rigidity into the model does not change these conclusions. Real wage rigidity does, however, imply second-round effects, making the monetary policy response, the inflation peak and the output drop more pronounced. Although in practice many of the assumptions of the model, such as full information, do not hold, lessons can be drawn for monetary policy. In case of a commodity supply shock, central banks would do well to focus on some measure of core inflation rather than headline inflation so as to reduce the volatility of both inflation and output. A communication strategy that places greater emphasis on underlying and expected inflation could serve to anchor inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Silke Tober & Tobias Zimmermann, 2008. "Monetary policy and commodity price shocks," IMK Working Paper 16-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:16-2008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_16_2008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lenza, Michele, 2007. "Monetary policy and core inflation," Working Paper Series 837, European Central Bank.
    2. Guido Ascari & Christian Merkl, 2009. "Real Wage Rigidities and the Cost of Disinflations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 417-435, March.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Rigidities and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from a New Keynesian Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 603, OECD Publishing.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Patrick J. Kehoe & Andrew Atkeson, 1999. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1028-1043, September.
    7. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    8. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 133-179.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhard, Heinz & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2016. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: In schwierigem Fahrwasser," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(1), pages 37-110.
    2. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2011:v:37i:1p:51 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2015. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.), Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 5, pages 135-193 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Silke Tober, 2011. "Makroökonomische Politik zur Bewältigung der Krise im Euroraum: Die Rolle Deutschlands," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 37(1), pages 51-68.
    5. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    6. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Blagov, Boris & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2017. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur weiter von Binnenwirtschaft getragen," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(1), pages 33-91.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:16-2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Nemitz). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.