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Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies


  • Jorge Fornero
  • Markus Kirchner
  • Andrés Yany


We study the effects of commodity price shocks in small open commodity-exporting economies, focusing on metals prices and their impact on sectoral investment. First, using a standard SVAR approach, we conduct estimations for major commodity exporters (Australia, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Peru and South Africa) to identify general cross-country patterns. Second, we use a DSGE model for Chile to study the propagation channels of commodity price changes and to implement counterfactual policy exercises. Our results suggest expansionary effects of commodity price increases in most countries, driven by positive responses of commodity investment that spill over to non-commodity sectors. The magnitude of these responses depends mainly on the size of the share of commodity exports and on the degree of persistency of the shock. Finally, our policy exercises highlight the importance of flexible inflation targeting, floating exchange rates and structural fiscal rules to efficiently manage commodity price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 773, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:773

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013829, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. World Bank Group, 2017. "Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25895.
    3. Nicolas E Magud & Sebastian Sosa, 2015. "Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?," IMF Working Papers 15/77, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 16/27, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jose De Gregorio, 2015. "From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow," Policy Briefs PB15-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Chang, Roberto & Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2017. "Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 90-109.
    7. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Major Producing Economy. The Case of Copper and Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 753, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Luc Eyraud, 2015. "End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers; The Case of Chile," IMF Working Papers 15/242, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:cml:incocp:3-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Claudia De La Huerta & Emiliano Luttini, 2017. "The Implications of Exhaustible Resources and Sectoral Composition for Growth Accounting: An Application to Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 807, Central Bank of Chile.

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