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Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile

  • José De Gregorio
  • Felipe Labbé

This paper examines the impact of the copper price on macroeconomic performance in Chile. We explore particular features of the Chilean business cycle focusing on economic activity and the real exchange rate. We find that the Chilean economy has become increasingly resilient to copper price shocks in the last twenty-five years, and especially during this last decade. The evidence shows that output volatility has dramatically decreased over the last twenty years, and the contribution of copper price fluctuations to output volatility has also declined. Moreover, the real exchange rate has acted as a shock absorber, and although during the last decade its short-run volatility has increased, its longrun volatility has remained stable and more recently has slightly declined. The decliningimpact of copper prices on the business cycle is due to macroeconomic policies. The evidence shows that a flexible exchange rate, a rule-based fiscal policy, and a flexible inflation targeting regime play a central role in these results.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 640.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:640
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  1. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Carlos A. Végh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2011. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," NBER Working Papers 17619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  4. José De Gregorio R. / & Andrea Tokman R., 2005. "Fear of Floating and Exchange Rate Policy in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(3), pages 29-54, December.
  5. Claudio Bravo-Ortega & Jose De Gregorio, . "The Relative Richness of the Poor? Natural Resources, Human Capital and Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 139, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  7. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Ruy Lama, 2010. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," IMF Working Papers 10/182, International Monetary Fund.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  9. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jorge Fornero & Jordi Galí, 2012. "Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 663, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. José De Gregorio, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: An Emerging Markets Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 141-156, 03.
  11. Larraín B., Felipe & Parro, Francisco, 2008. "Chile menos volátil," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 563-596, julio-sep.
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