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Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile

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  • José De Gregorio
  • Felipe Labbé

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the copper price on macroeconomic performance in Chile. We explore particular features of the Chilean business cycle focusing on economic activity and the real exchange rate. We find that the Chilean economy has become increasingly resilient to copper price shocks in the last twenty-five years, and especially during this last decade. The evidence shows that output volatility has dramatically decreased over the last twenty years, and the contribution of copper price fluctuations to output volatility has also declined. Moreover, the real exchange rate has acted as a shock absorber, and although during the last decade its short-run volatility has increased, its longrun volatility has remained stable and more recently has slightly declined. The decliningimpact of copper prices on the business cycle is due to macroeconomic policies. The evidence shows that a flexible exchange rate, a rule-based fiscal policy, and a flexible inflation targeting regime play a central role in these results.

Suggested Citation

  • José De Gregorio & Felipe Labbé, 2011. "Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 640, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina, 2012. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    3. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jorge A. Fornero & Jordi Galí, 2013. "Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 8, pages 283-322 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. José De Gregorio R. / & Andrea Tokman R., 2005. "Fear of Floating and Exchange Rate Policy in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(3), pages 29-54, December.
    5. Claudio Bravo-Ortega & Jose De Gregorio, "undated". "The Relative Richness of the Poor? Natural Resources, Human Capital and Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 139, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    7. Larraín B., Felipe & Parro, Francisco, 2008. "Chile menos volátil," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 563-596, julio-sep.
    8. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    9. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "The Terms of Trade as Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Economies: An Empirical Study," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010eng, enero-jun.
    10. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    2. Fabio Comelli & Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "To Bet or Not to Bet; Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile," IMF Working Papers 16/218, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:2:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dobronogov, Anton & Gelb, Alan & Saldanha, Fernando Brant, 2014. "How should donors respond to resource windfalls in poor countries ? from aid to insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6952, The World Bank.
    5. Andres Solimano & Diego Calderón Guajardo, 2017. "The copper sector, fiscal rules, and stabilization funds in Chile: Scope and limits," WIDER Working Paper Series 053, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    7. Jair N. OJeda & Julián A. Parra Polanía & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Natural-Resource Booms, Fiscal Rules and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 807, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Major Producing Economy. The Case of Copper and Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 753, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Gelb, Alan & Tordo, Silvana & Halland, Havard & Arfaa, Noora & Smith, Gregory, 2014. "Sovereign wealth funds and long-term development finance : risks and opportunities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6776, The World Bank.
    10. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:29-:d:103932 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "When the Walk Is Not Random: Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 121-158, June.

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