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Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile

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  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of copper-price shocks on the Chilean business cycle from a general equilibrium perspective. Using a DSGE model, we compare the effects of transitory copper-price shocks under different fiscal rules. The results show that if the fiscal policy is conducted using a structural balance fiscal rule, such that the government saves most of the extra revenues from the higher copper price, then a copper price shock of 10% would increase output only by 0.05% and there would be a slight decrease in inflation. This last effect occurs due to a real appreciation of the exchange that compensates a slight increase in domestic goods inflation. In contrast, when fiscal policy is highly expansive, the same copper price increase implies an output expansion of up to 0.7%, an increase in inflation, and a real exchange rate appreciate of 0.2%. We show that the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime would have contributed to isolate output (and inflation) from copper price shocks, although our quantification of the effect of this change in policy is small. We also show that if the structural balance fiscal rule lacks credibility, then a copper price shock would lead to much higher inflation than under full credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:458
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    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July.
    3. Alejandro Drexler & Eduardo Engel & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2001. "El cobre y estrategia fiscal óptima para Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.), Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 263-280 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    6. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2002. "Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 115-126.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Parra-Polanía, Julián A. & Vargas, Carmiña O., 2016. "Fiscal rules as a response to commodity shocks: A welfare analysis of the Colombian scenario," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 859-866.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Ondra Kamenik & Michael Kumhof, 2014. "Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1657-1686, December.
    4. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina, 2012. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Gabriel, Vasco & Levine, Paul, 2010. "A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India," Working Papers 10/70, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
    7. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2010. "Chile’s Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: a Model-Based Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(3), pages 5-32, December.
    8. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Tanner, Evan, 2011. "Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 649-676, July.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2008. "What Drives the Current Account in Comodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 10, pages 369-434 Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a DSGE Model of India," Working Papers 11/96, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Cristina Betancour & José De Gregorio & Juan Pablo Medina, 2008. "The "great moderation" and the monetary transmission mechanism in Chile," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 159-178 Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Jair N. OJeda & Julián A. Parra Polanía & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Natural-Resource Booms, Fiscal Rules and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 807, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Carlos Capistrán & Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2011. "Policy Response to External Shocks: Lessons from the Crisis," Working Papers 2011-14, Banco de México.
    16. Miranda, Jorge, 2012. "Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile: Dinámica, Tendencia y Equilibrio
      [Real Exchange Rate in Chile: Dynamics, Trend and Equilibrium]
      ," MPRA Paper 43076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.

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