Chile’s Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: a Model-Based Evaluation
The paper analyzes Chile’s structural surplus fiscal rule in the face of shocks to the world copper price. Two results are obtained. First, Chile’s current fiscal rule performs well if the policymaker (i) puts a premium on avoiding excessive volatility in fiscal instruments, and (ii) puts a relatively small weight on output volatility relative to inflation volatility in the objective function. A more aggressive countercyclical fiscal rule can attain lower output volatility, but there is a trade-off with somewhat higher inflation volatility and much higher instrument volatility. The ranking of instruments between government spending and labor income taxes depends mainly on the instrument volatility the policymaker will tolerate. Second, given its then current stock of government assets, Chile’s adoption of a 0.5% surplus target starting in 2008 was desirable because the earlier 1% target would have required significant further asset accumulation that could only have been accomplished at the expense of greater volatility in fiscal instruments and therefore in macroeconomic variables
Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Juan de Dios Tena & César Salazar, 2008.
"Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile: an empirical analysis of forty years,"
REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA,
UN - RCE - CID, December.
- Salazar, César & Tena, Juan de Dios, 2007. "Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile : an empirical analysis of forty years," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws071505, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005.
"Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
128, Society for Computational Economics.
- Thomas Laubach, 2009.
"New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005.
"Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo, 2007. "The Case for a Countercyclical Rule-based Fiscal Regime," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv183, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Designing fiscal rules for commodity exporters," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv199, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Simple, Implementable Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 09/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003.
"Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
- Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in â€˜t Veld & RenÃ© Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & GÃ¼nter Coenen & Susan, 2010.
"Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models,"
IMF Working Papers
10/73, International Monetary Fund.
- Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2000.
"Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability,"
NBER Working Papers
7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 426, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December.
- R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
- Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:13:y:2010:i:3:p:5-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.