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Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates

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  • Challe, E.
  • Le Grand, F.
  • Ragot, X.

Abstract

We analyze the term structure of real interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and borrowing constraints. Agents are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, which latter may force them into early portfolio liquidation in a bad aggregate state. We derive a closed-form equilibrium with limited agent heterogeneity (despite market incompleteness), which allows us to produce analytical expressions for bond prices and returns at any maturity. The attractiveness of bonds as liquidity makes aggregate bond demand downward-sloping, so that greater bond supply raises both the level and the slope of the yield curve. Moreover, time-variations in liquidation risk are shown to help explain the rejection of the Expectations Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Challe, E. & Le Grand, F. & Ragot, X., 2010. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Working papers 301, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:301
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    Cited by:

    1. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Aggregate Consumption in Times of Crisis: The Role of Financial Frictions," Post-Print halshs-00754434, HAL.
    2. Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," Working Papers hal-01169656, HAL.
    3. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas M. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2016. "A search-theoretic model of the term premium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), September.
    4. Gabriel Desgranges & Celine Rochon, 2014. "Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default," IMF Working Papers 14/168, International Monetary Fund.
    5. François Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Incomplete markets and derivative assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 517-545, August.
    6. Le Grand, F. & Ragot, X., 2010. "Prices and volumes of options: A simple theory of risk sharing when markets are incomplete," Working papers 302, Banque de France.
    7. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Aggregate Consumption in Times of Crisis: The Role of Financial Frictions -super-1," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 627-648, December.
    8. Tiago Berriel & Rodrigo Abreu, 2015. "Long Term Debt and Credit Crisis in a Liquidity Constrained Economy," Textos para discussão 644, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    9. Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "The Welfare Cost Of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," Working Papers hal-01157168, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; yield curve; borrowing constraints.;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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