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Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates

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  • Challe, E.
  • Le Grand, F.
  • Ragot, X.

Abstract

We analyze the term structure of real interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and borrowing constraints. Agents are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, which latter may force them into early portfolio liquidation in a bad aggregate state. We derive a closed-form equilibrium with limited agent heterogeneity (despite market incompleteness), which allows us to produce analytical expressions for bond prices and returns at any maturity. The attractiveness of bonds as liquidity makes aggregate bond demand downward-sloping, so that greater bond supply raises both the level and the slope of the yield curve. Moreover, time-variations in liquidation risk are shown to help explain the rejection of the Expectations Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Challe, E. & Le Grand, F. & Ragot, X., 2010. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Working papers 301, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:301
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; yield curve; borrowing constraints.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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