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Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt

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  • Guibaud, Stéphane
  • Nosbusch, Yves
  • Vayanos, Dimitri

Abstract

We propose a clientele-based model of the yield curve and optimal maturity structure of government debt. Clienteles are generations of agents at different lifecycle stages in an overlapping-generations economy. An optimal maturity structure exists in the absence of distortionary taxes and induces efficient intergenerational risksharing. If agents are more risk-averse than log, then an increase in the long-horizon clientele raises the price and optimal supply of long-term bonds---effects that we also confirm empirically in a panel of OECD countries. Moreover, under the optimal maturity structure, catering to clienteles is limited and long-term bonds earn negative expected excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Guibaud, Stéphane & Nosbusch, Yves & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2013. "Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 9407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9407
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    Cited by:

    1. Hafedh BOUAKEZ & Rigas OIKONOMOU & Romanos PRIFTIS, 2016. "Optimal Debt Management in a Liquidity Trap," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2016005, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
    3. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Oikonomou, Rigas & Scott, Andrew, 2014. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It," CEPR Discussion Papers 10281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2017. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86148, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2014. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It (Plus Appendix)," Working Papers 799, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Luis Opazo & Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2015. "Institutional Investors and Long-Term Investment: Evidence from Chile," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(3), pages 479-522.
    7. S. M. Ali Abbas & Laura Blattner & Mark De Broeck & Asmaa A ElGanainy & Malin Hu, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies; A Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 14/162, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 55-102.
    9. Till Strohsal, 2013. "Testing the Preferred-Habitat Theory: The Role ofTime-Varying Risk Aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-043, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates under Zero or Low Bound: The Recent Japanese Case," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 19-23.
    12. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.
    13. Edouard Challe & François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers hal-00843147, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    clientele effects; debt management; government debt; interest rates; preferred habitat;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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