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Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt

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Listed author(s):
  • Stéphane Guibaud
  • Yves Nosbusch
  • Dimitri Vayanos

Abstract

We propose a clientele-based model of the yield curve and optimal maturity structure of government debt. Clienteles are generations of agents at different lifecycle stages in an overlapping-generations economy. An optimal maturity structure exists in the absence of distortionary taxes and induces efficient intergenerational risksharing. If agents are more risk-averse than log, then an increase in the long-horizon clientele raises the price and optimal supply of long-term bonds--effects that we also confirm empirically in a panel of OECD countries. Moreover, under the optimal maturity structure, catering to clienteles is limited and long-term bonds earn negative expected excess returns.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18922.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18922.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
Publication status: published as Stéphane Guibaud & Yves Nosbusch & Dimitri Vayanos, 2013. "Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1914-1961.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18922
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
  • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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Cited by:

  1. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
  2. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2014. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It," Working Papers 799, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Luis Opazo & Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2015. "Institutional Investors and Long-Term Investment: Evidence from Chile," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(3), pages 479-522.
  4. S. M. Ali Abbas & Laura Blattner & Mark De Broeck & Asmaa A ElGanainy & Malin Hu, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies; A Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 14/162, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 55-102.
  6. Till Strohsal, 2013. "Testing the Preferred-Habitat Theory: The Role ofTime-Varying Risk Aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-043, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates under Zero or Low Bound: The Recent Japanese Case," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 19-23, February.
  8. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.

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