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Manufacturing Risk-Free Government Debt

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Zhengyang

    (Northwestern U)

  • Lustig, Hanno

    (Stanford U)

  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn

    (Columbia U)

  • Xiaolan, Mindy Z.

    (U of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Governments face a trade-off between insuring bondholders and taxpayers. If the government decides to fully insure bondholders by manufacturing risk-free debt, then it cannot insure taxpayers against permanent macro-economic shocks over long horizons. Instead, taxpayers will pay more in taxes in bad times. Conversely, if the government insures taxpayers against adverse macro shocks, then the debt becomes at least as risky as unlevered equity. Only when government debt earns convenience yields, may governments be able to insure both bondholders and taxpayers, and then only if the convenience yields are sufficiently counter-cyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy Z., 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-Free Government Debt," Research Papers 3882, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:3882
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Corhay, Alexandre & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2021. "Discount rates, debt maturity, and the fiscal theory," SAFE Working Paper Series 323, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    3. Gaetano Bloise & Pietro Reichlin, 2023. "Low safe interest rates: A case for dynamic inefficiency?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 633-656, December.
    4. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    5. YiLi Chien & Wenxin Du & Hanno Lustig, 2025. "Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money," Working Papers 2025-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Chien, YiLi & Wen, Yi, 2022. "The determination of public debt under both aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    7. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Shultz, Patrick, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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