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The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle

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  • Zhengyang Jiang
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
  • Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Abstract

The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected risk-adjusted present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no-arbitrage restriction in the U.S. Both cyclical and long-run dynamics of tax revenues and government spending make the surplus claim risky. In a realistic asset pricing model, this risk in surpluses creates a large gap between the market value of debt and its fundamental value, the PDV of surpluses, suggesting that U.S. Treasurys may be mispriced.

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  • Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2019. "The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 26583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26583
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian A. Merkel & Yuliy Sannikov, 2020. "The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble," NBER Working Papers 27116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean Charles & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Balance Sheet of the Private Sector," CEPR Discussion Papers 17529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian, Sannikov, Yuliy Merkel & Sebastian Merkel, 2021. "Debt as Safe Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 9500, CESifo.
    4. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean-Charles & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2023. "Public Debt and the Balance Sheet of the Private Sector," TSE Working Papers 23-1412, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Victor Duarte & Diogo Duarte & Dejanir H. Silva, 2024. "Machine Learning for Continuous-Time Finance," CESifo Working Paper Series 10909, CESifo.
    6. Corhay, Alexandre & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2021. "Discount rates, debt maturity, and the fiscal theory," SAFE Working Paper Series 323, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Mehrotra, Neil R. & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Debt sustainability in a low interest rate world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 1-18.
    8. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    9. Peng, Juan & Tang, Zian & Yang, Jinqiang & Zhang, Zhanhao, 2025. "Managing government debt, taxes and public investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    10. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Keinsley, Andrew, 2025. "Measuring the monetary services of US treasury securities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Liu, Yang, 2023. "Government debt and risk premia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 18-34.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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