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Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory

Author

Listed:
  • ALEXANDRE CORHAY
  • THILO KIND
  • HOWARD KUNG
  • GONZALO MORALES

Abstract

This paper examines how the transmission of government portfolio risk arising from maturity operations depends on the stance of monetary/fiscal policy. Accounting for risk premia in the fiscal theory allows the government portfolio to affect expected inflation, even in a frictionless economy. The effects of maturity rebalancing on expected inflation in the fiscal theory depend directly on the conditional nominal term premium, giving rise to an optimal debt‐maturity policy that is state‐dependent. In a calibrated macrofinance model, we demonstrate that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output through our novel risk transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2023. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(6), pages 3561-3620, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:78:y:2023:i:6:p:3561-3620
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13282
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Li, Erica X.N. & Zha, Tao & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 20-34.
    3. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Shultz, Patrick, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16414, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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